China is widely expected to set its 2026 economic growth target between 4.5% and 5% when Premier Li Qiang addresses the National People’s Congress on March 5, launching the 15th Five-Year Plan.
A range target would indicate greater tolerance for moderated expansion after last year’s 5% growth, achieved largely through a $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
“Policymakers will step up efforts to spur consumption while continuing to stress tech-driven new productive forces,” said a policy adviser.
China has built global manufacturing dominance, strengthening supply-chain leverage amid rivalry with the United States. However, domestic consumption remains subdued, and the export-led model has contributed to debt build-up, deflationary pressure and industrial overcapacity.
“There is clearly some tension between these two agendas and so we will be looking to the full five-year plan to clarify what balance the leadership will strike,” analysts at Capital Economics said. That balance, they added, “will determine how much progress is made in tackling overcapacity and deflation over the next few years.”
Two-thirds of provincial governments have lowered growth ambitions. Guangdong set a 4.5–5% target, while Jiangsu moved to 5%. Michelle Lam of Societe Generale said: “If confirmed, this would signal a stronger willingness among policymakers to tolerate slower but more sustainable growth, rather than relying on debt-fuelled investment stimulus.”
Morgan Stanley expects the target to remain around 5%, noting “Beijing values anchoring confidence” and that the first year of a new quinquennial plan “is not the moment to blink.”
Household consumption accounts for roughly 40% of GDP, with advisers recommending 45% by 2030. Nominal GDP rose only 4.0% in 2025, while the GDP deflator fell 1% for a third year.
Zhang Jun of Fudan University wrote that growth “does not match how people actually feel.”
“We will no longer focus on expanding industrial capacity. Instead, greater emphasis will be placed on developing cutting-edge technologies,” Tu Xinquan stated.