European Union leaders meet in Brussels today for a two-day summit, as they must decide whether to loan tens of billions of euros from frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defence and economy.
Russia’s €210 billion in EU holdings mostly sit with Belgium’s Euroclear. These generated €2.3 billion in Q3 2025 interest alone, which the EU has sent to Kyiv—but not the principal. Belgium and others oppose using the capital. Ratings firm Fitch issued a negative watch on Euroclear last month over legal risks, including Russian sovereign immunity claims.
Ukraine risks fiscal collapse by early 2026 without aid. The Commission proposes €90 billion in loans over two years from the €210 billion pot—covering two-thirds of Kyiv’s €137 billion needs through 2027, repayable via Russian reparations.
A European official said they felt “cautiously optimistic, not overly optimistic” about a deal. Russia sues Euroclear in Moscow and threatens reprisals.
The timing is critical. U.S. President Donald Trump posted on X that peace—after Russia’s 2022 invasion—is “closer now than we have been ever.” Putin called Europe “total degradation” and its allies “European piglets.”
Germany’s Friedrich Merz pushes hard, telling the Bundestag it sends Moscow a “clear signal.” Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs, “We know the urgency. It is acute. We all feel it. We all see it.”
“This is a crunch time for Ukraine to keep fighting for the next year,” a Finnish official told the BBC. “There are of course peace negotiations but this gives Ukraine leverage to say ‘we’re not desperate and we have the funds to continue fighting’.”
Belgium favours EU market borrowing instead, but Hungary’s Viktor Orbán vows veto. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni backs it “if the legal basis is solid.”
“If the legal basis for this initiative were not solid, we would be handing Russia its first real victory since the beginning of this conflict,” he added. Doubts from Slovakia, Malta, Bulgaria and Czechia threaten the two-thirds majority.
“We’re not going to vote against Belgium,” Council chief António Costa told RTBF. “We’ll continue to work very intensively with the Belgian government because we don’t want to approve something that might not be acceptable for Belgium.”
Belgium’s PM Bart De Wever and Euroclear’s CEO warn of risks. “There are many hiccups and obstacles of course still on the way. We have to find a way to respond to Belgium’s worries,” the Finn added. “We are on the same side as Belgium. We will find a solution together to make sure all the risks are checked as much as they can be checked.”
Guarantees could shield against court reversals. Russia would reclaim funds only after paying Ukraine reparations.