The most recent ASB Investor Confidence Survey indicates that net investor confidence dropped from 9% in Q1 to just 1% for the quarter ending in June.
Net investor confidence reveals the gap between people who expect investment returns to improve and those who believe they will decline over the next year.
The lower North Island saw the largest decrease, dropping from a net 12% in the three months to January to -6% this quarter—a fall of 18%. Auckland residents were the most optimistic, with a net 10% anticipating improved returns in the year ahead.
“It’s been a challenging six months, with markets affected by uncertainty around tariffs and global issues, alongside concerns at home, such as the housing market, which hasn’t bounced back the way people expected it to,” ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said.
“This has led to a more pessimistic tone in overall investor confidence, which seems to be suffering from the same weak sentiment we’re seeing in consumer confidence.”
The survey reveals that overall confidence is strongest among people under 39, while those over 60 are the least optimistic. Chris said this partly reflects the typical asset holdings and investment stages of different age groups.
51% expressed strong concern over the effects of global political instability or uncertainty on their investments. 47% were worried about international geopolitical tensions and conflicts, while 43% were concerned about international trade policies, including tariffs.
The data came following the report that New Zealand’s GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter. While Prime Minister Christopher Luxon acknowledged that the GDP release had been “frustrating” and “challenging,” he remained optimistic about investment prospects in New Zealand.
“On investors, I’m not so sure about that. If you think about it, we had a big infrastructure investor summit at the beginning of the year. We’ve had huge amounts of interest from big superannuation funds from around the world,” he said.
“If you look at the big-scale infrastructure investors, they’re actually still coming to New Zealand—still very invested in wanting to get involved in projects.”
“The Trump tariffs came down, and you literally could see the economy come to a sort of a halt, and we all felt that in the last quarter.”
“Now we’re growing. If you look at it, we’ve got primary industries having a record year. You’re seeing tourism. We’re doing everything we can to pump up major events. We had a record year in July for Australians coming to New Zealand.”
“We’ve got major opportunities around more investment.”
The Prime Minister and the government consistently proclaimed, since the beginning of 2025, that this year would be the year to “go for growth” in the economy.