Apple is projected to outship Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years, shipping approximately 243 million iPhones compared to Samsung’s 235 million devices.
This would give Apple a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, narrowly surpassing Samsung’s 18.7%. The boost is mainly due to the strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, launched in September, which saw a 12% sales increase over the iPhone 16 series in the U.S. and an 18% rise in China, a vital market for the company.
Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang noted that the improvement is also driven by the smartphone replacement cycle reaching a turning point, with buyers from the COVID-19 boom now upgrading their devices. Samsung, however, faces stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers in the budget and mid-range segments, posing challenges to reclaiming the top spot.
Apple’s lead is expected to extend through to 2029. The large second-hand iPhone market—over 350 million sold between 2023 and mid-2025—creates a strong upgrade base.
Moreover, Apple has benefited from a U.S.-China trade truce that eased tariff pressures, thereby strengthening its supply chain and expanding growth in emerging markets. A weaker U.S. dollar and resilient economic conditions have also supported consumer spending.
Looking ahead, Apple plans to launch the iPhone 17e and its first foldable phone in 2026. Upgrades to its Siri virtual assistant and a major iPhone redesign in 2027 are also anticipated, reinforcing Apple’s market position.