This holiday season, U.S. online sales are expected to reach a record $253.4 billion, representing a 5.3% increase from last year, according to Adobe.
The surge is driven by growing shopper demand for discounts, with average price cuts around 28%, and a shift towards mobile shopping, which is projected to account for 56.1% of online spending—an all-time high supported by larger, more user-friendly smartphone screens.
Cyber Monday is forecast to be the top spending day at $14.2 billion, up 6.3%, while Black Friday is expected to see faster growth at 8.3%, reaching $11.7 billion. Thanksgiving Day online sales are predicted to hit $6.4 billion, rising nearly 5%. The critical five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, known as Cyber Week, is expected to drive $43.7 billion or 17.2% of the holiday sales.
Artificial intelligence is reshaping shopping behaviours, with AI-powered web traffic expected to grow by 520% this season, peaking just before Thanksgiving. Surveys show over half of shoppers plan to use AI for research, with many seeking personalised recommendations, deals, and gift ideas. Key categories benefiting from AI include toys, electronics, jewellery, and personal care.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) options continue to gain traction, with BNPL-driven holiday spending projected at $20.2 billion, an 11% rise over 2024. Cyber Monday BNPL transactions alone could exceed $1 billion.
Social media advertising is another powerful driver, expected to boost online revenue by 51%, far outpacing last year’s 5% rise, as younger generations increasingly shop through social platforms.
The 2025 holiday shopping season combines traditional discount hunting with advanced technologies and evolving payment methods, offering consumers improved convenience while pushing retailers to innovate swiftly to capture the growing online market.