Starting a first job has never been straightforward for young people.
However, in earlier decades, the route into work was more clearly defined. Advanced economies like New Zealand traditionally depended on entry-level positions to introduce new workers into the system and gradually develop the future workforce.
Recent labour data suggests that the situation has changed. In New Zealand, the unemployment rate for people aged 15 to 24 is about 15%. This is higher than in recent years and roughly three times the rate of the broader working-age population.
At the same time, many of the roles that once provided an entry point into employment, particularly junior administrative and office-based positions, have been declining.
As these roles disappear, a key function of the labour market is also being weakened. Entry-level jobs have not only provided employment but have also helped young workers learn how organisations operate, develop judgement, and build skills through hands-on experience.
Removing these pathways creates a challenge that goes beyond unemployment alone.
How much responsibility does AI have?
There has been significant attention on artificial intelligence and its potential impact on employment. However, rather than eliminating entire job categories, AI has so far mainly automated specific tasks within roles.
A global survey conducted last year by US market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC), involving 5,500 organisations, found that 91% said AI had already changed or replaced aspects of job roles.
Among New Zealand employers included in the survey, more than half reported that AI was contributing to substantial job displacement. These employers also indicated they were slowing or halting entry-level hiring.
Close to 90% expected further reductions in entry-level roles within the next three years.
This is because many of the tasks most affected by AI are similar to those traditionally assigned to entry-level workers—routine, repetitive, or data-focused work. As automation increases, job design is shifting. Organisations now require fewer staff for routine tasks and more workers who can handle complex and less predictable responsibilities from the outset.
The value of entry-level roles
While AI may be intensifying pressures on younger workers, it is not the only factor influencing the labour market.
In New Zealand and comparable economies, more young people are now completing higher education. This has increased the number of graduates entering the job market simultaneously, creating stronger competition for available positions. As a result, both employment levels and unemployment rates can remain high at the same time.
This shift also highlights a growing issue: qualifications alone are becoming less effective as a signal for employers. Many now prioritise practical experience and applied skills over academic achievement alone.
This creates a clear challenge. If entry-level jobs are becoming less available, it becomes harder for young people to gain the experience employers are seeking in the first place.
Expanding work-integrated learning and entrepreneurship programmes could help students develop practical skills, decision-making ability, and adaptability, qualities that were traditionally gained through entry-level jobs.
Even so, universities alone cannot resolve the issue. The central question is not just whether young people can find jobs, but whether the labour market still provides a clear entry point into working life.