New Zealand’s population growth has now slowed for three successive years, and the Wairarapa’s latest results for the year to June 2025 mirror that nationwide trend.
Statistics NZ’s October release shows the country’s growth rate dropping from 2.3% in 2023, to 1.7% in 2024, and down again to 0.7%. Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon says the figures were entirely expected.
“Many people are currently deciding New Zealand is not where they want to be. There are not as many people coming in, and more are leaving.”
New Zealand recorded 108,400 net migrants in 2023, 70,400 in 2024, and only 13,700 in 2025. “The slowdown in international migration was the key driver behind the numbers,” Brunsdon noted, explaining that 2023’s population surge was partly a post-Covid border reopening effect — with that year’s 2.3% increase marking “the fastest since the 1950s”.
According to an Infometrics report presented to Masterton District Council, “every territorial authority faced the same or slower growth in 2025, compared to 2024” and “no one bucked the trend.” Wairarapa’s results reflect that uniformity almost exactly.
Masterton posted 0.7% growth — right on the national average and tied with Lower Hutt for the highest in the Wellington region. In raw numbers, that equates to a gain of around 200 residents. South Wairarapa barely grew at all, rising just 0.1%, a modest increase of about 100 people. Carterton, by contrast, edged into decline: its -0.2% result represents an estimated 100-person loss.
While those movements are small, the pattern matters. Brunsdon put it bluntly: “Because population growth nationally has slowed down, it has slowed down everywhere.”
Migration swings now exert disproportionate influence on population outcomes, with natural increase playing only a limited role. Net migration — defined simply as the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants over a specific period — has fallen sharply from its 2023 peak. The shift has exposed how sensitive local economies are to changes in global mobility and how strongly New Zealand’s appeal as a migrant destination shapes growth.
Fewer people arriving — and more leaving — has produced immediate economic effects across the country and within Wairarapa. Brunsdon said the softer population numbers were already visible in the housing market. “Having less population growth, there is less pressure on the housing market,” he explained. “It’s a key factor in the housing market being so flat right now.”
“Not having as much growth in the population means there is not as much growth across all aspects of the economy. It helps the economy when there are more people.”
Cretney emphasised that the new council is working to create a more appealing environment for investment and activity. “Our new council is certainly looking at how we might be able to support and work with local business owners, so the town centre is more attractive to new businesses and residents alike,” he said. It is, in his view, “a great time to focus on building a strong resilient local economy, that supports our existing community, while ensuring we create the right conditions to attract sustainable growth in the future.”
“If we look ahead we see an ageing population. We are going to need more migrants over the next five to ten years to carry on doing what we are doing,” Brunsdon warned.