Labour is seen as the party best able to handle all five of New Zealanders’ top concerns, according to the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor. A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll taken earlier in October had National ahead on the economy, inflation and five other issues.
What the Ipsos monitor found
Ipsos surveyed 1,008 New Zealanders online between 19 and 27 October for its 35th monitor, released on 2 November. Labour led National on 16 of the 20 issues measured, up from 15 in September.
On inflation and the cost of living, Labour rose 7 points to 38%, with National on 24%. Its widest margin in the top five was healthcare, at 42% to 21%. Labour also led on fuel (35% to 20%), the economy (34% to 29%) and unemployment (38% to 21%).
National’s only lead is crime and law and order, and that gap has narrowed to a point, at 29% to 28%.
The cost of living is still the top concern at 64%, followed by healthcare at 45%. Concern about fuel prices jumped 14 points to 31%, the highest Ipsos has recorded since the monitor began in 2018, and moved from seventh to third.
The economy dropped to fourth, down from 34% to 30%. Amanda Dudding, executive director of public affairs at Ipsos New Zealand, says concern about the cost of fuel “has surged into the top three issues facing the country” as prices climbed to near-record levels. She says the result shows how sensitive New Zealanders remain to rises in everyday household costs.
Ipsos says it runs the monitor so businesses and organisations understand the pressures New Zealanders face, and that it has no external sponsors or partners. The government’s performance rating held at 4.1 out of 10, with 26% scoring it 7 or higher and 42% scoring it 3 or lower.
The Curia result
Curia polled 1,000 people for the Taxpayers’ Union between 1 and 5 October. National led on the economy, inflation, education, safety, spending, the environment and not increasing taxes. Labour led on health, poverty and housing.
The party vote was close, with National on 28.5% and Labour on 28.2%.
The Taxpayers’ Union commissions the Curia poll and releases headline results publicly, with the full report going to members of its Taxpayer Caucus. Its poll notes disclose that Curia director David Farrar co-founded the union and previously sat on its board.
How the two polls differ
Ipsos draws its whole sample from online panels and weights the results by age, gender and region. Curia uses phone and online panels. Its September notes say 700 of 1,000 respondents were reached by phone and 300 online, and that it targets adults who are eligible and likely to vote.
News site Centrist raised the method gap. It argued that online panels can be vulnerable to selection and coverage bias, and that weighting by age, gender and region can’t necessarily account for differences in political attitudes among the people who take part.
Centrist also noted that Curia’s earlier fieldwork, its focus on likely voters and differently worded questions make a direct comparison harder.
Other pollsters use online panels too. RNZ’s latest Reid Research poll, taken from 20 to 26 October, surveyed 1,000 eligible voters online. Verian, which polls for 1News, says it collects half its sample by calling random mobile numbers and half online from people signed up for market research.
The Ipsos monitor measures which party people think is most capable on each issue. It doesn’t ask how they’ll vote. Polling day is 7 November.