Voters want a wealth tax. Business should brace for capital gains instead

Taxing the wealthy is no longer a fringe position in New Zealand politics. It is the default. 1News’s Vote Compass found 62% of 186,475 respondents think wealthier people should pay somewhat or much more tax. That is down from 67% at the 2023 election, but higher than 2014 (56%), 2017 (57%) and 2020. Back in 2020, 59% of respondents took that view, and just 7% wanted the wealthy taxed less.

For business owners, the question is not whether the mood has shifted. It is which tax the mood actually produces. The evidence points somewhere more specific than “the rich”.

Even the top income band agrees

Support held above 50% in every income band, from 70% among those earning $20,000 or less to 53% among those on more than $100,000. By party, 96% of Green, 88% of Labour and 86% of Opportunity supporters want the wealthy to pay more, along with 64% of undecided voters. National (30%), ACT (25%) and NZ First (45%) supporters are cooler, but the most common answer among National and ACT voters was that the wealthy should pay about the same, not less. The centre-right base is not demanding cuts at the top. It wants stability.

Everyone wants someone richer to pay

The nuance is in who voters think “wealthy” means. An Ipsos poll for The Spinoff found 64% backed a 2.5% wealth tax on net assets above $10 million, with the family home exempt, against 26% opposed. Yet among people earning over $100,000, only 6% thought they personally should pay more tax, while 41% wanted to pay less. Even those on more than $160,000 backed the wealth tax 54% to 39%. Translation: tax the wealthy, as long as the wealthy are someone else.

That explains a strange gap inside Labour’s own camp. The NZ Herald’s Front Page reported 76% of Labour voters support a wealth tax, but only 56% back the capital gains tax the party is actually campaigning on. National voters show the same pattern, 47% for a wealth tax versus 25% for a CGT. Newstalk ZB political reporter Ethan Griffiths put it down to self-interest. A $10 million threshold will never touch most voters. A CGT could eventually hit their rental or share portfolio.

The IRD number behind the push

The intellectual engine of this debate is three years old. In 2023, IRD’s high-wealth study of 311 families with a median net worth of $106 million found a median effective tax rate of just 8.9% of economic income. Around 80% of that income came from largely untaxed capital gains, and 67% flowed through trusts. No newer official work has replaced it.

The Conversation notes New Zealand leans harder on taxing wages than comparable countries, and that a CGT broadens the base rather than necessarily raising the overall tax take. That framing is doing a lot of quiet work in this campaign.

Business has softened on capital gains

Here is the part most political coverage misses. Deloitte’s 2026 Election Survey found business support for a CGT has climbed from 27.5% in 2023 to 46%, with 45.7% opposed. Firms still draw a hard line elsewhere, with 65.3% opposing a wealth tax, 69.2% against a windfall tax and 68.5% against a land tax. On personal rates, 61.8% want them left alone.

In 2023, 61% of businesses opposed a CGT. BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich says firms want “certainty that tax settings won’t be pulled out from under them“. One caveat: the 2026 sample skewed towards larger firms, with small business and the self-employed under-represented. The owner-operators most exposed to a CGT on an eventual exit may be less relaxed than the headline split suggests.

A wealth tax would make New Zealand an outlier

Grant Thornton warns a 2.5% annual wealth tax would be unusually aggressive. Most OECD countries have moved away from recurring wealth taxes, Sweden scrapped its version, and Norway charges materially lower rates. The firm flags capital mobility as a serious risk. Wealth that can move, will.

The pressure is not going away. In March 2026, a poll commissioned by advocacy group Wellbeing Economy Alliance Aotearoa found 68% supported taxing billionaires more. It is an advocacy number, but it points the same way as the neutral data.

Price the probable, hedge the tail

The centre of gravity has moved, and it has moved towards capital rather than wages. A CGT is the realistic near-term outcome. It is on a major party’s platform and business is now roughly split on it. A wealth tax polls better but remains a lower-probability, higher-impact tail risk.

Founders planning exits, landlords and investors holding assets through trusts should be modelling CGT scenarios now, not after election night. The public has spent five elections saying the same thing. The only open question is how much of it this election turns into law.

Sources

• 1News: Should wealthier Kiwis pay more tax? Here’s what voters think (2026-10-23)
• 1News: Vote Compass: Most New Zealanders support higher taxes for the wealthy (2020-09-15)
• The Spinoff: How New Zealanders really feel about tax – exclusive poll results (2026-09-24)
• NZ Herald: Election 2026: Do Kiwis want more tax, less tax, or no tax? – The Front Page (2026-09-25)
• Inland Revenue: High-Wealth Individuals Research Project Report (2023-04)
• The Conversation: Why the tax NZ never wanted to talk about is back on the political agenda in 2026 (2026-06-07)
• Deloitte: Business backs stability over reform | Election Survey 2026 (2026-09-15)
• Economic News: Business split on CGT, demand tax stability – survey (2026-09-15)
• Grant Thornton: Tax policy at the crossroads: Growth, simplicity and redistribution in Election 2026 (2026-09-01)
• RNZ: New Zealanders support more taxes on ultra-rich, new poll shows (2026-03-04)